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Lance Lynn has been solid? The veteran will take the mound for the St. Louis Cardinals tonight, and after last season, it looked like he was ready for retirement rather than another year of pitching. However, 2024 has been a renaissance of at least some sort.
In his last five starts, Lynn posted a 2.6 ERA but got limited run support and only claimed one win. The metrics are a mixed bag, but Lynn has avoided the hard-hit ball ranking in the top 25% of baseball in that category.
Opposing Lynn is Taijuan Walker. Walker will enter today with an expected ERA over 6, one of the worst in the sport. The Cardinals present their own particular problems.
Walker’s biggest issues are simply teams barrelling up balls against him. He’s at the bottom of the league in barrel rate, hard-hit rate, and mostly any metric that indicates solid contact. The Cardinals aren’t the most potent lineup in baseball, but they certainly have enough pop to trouble Walker. They’ll enter this matchup near the bottom of baseball in these metrics, but the historical precedence set by some of their players suggests they should improve. I’m banking on some of that happening tonight against a pitcher who has been awful this season.
I’m backing the Cardinals today. Walker shouldn’t be a favorite against nearly any starting pitcher for the moment, and I think that this reflects a false reality of what we’ve seen from Lynn. One pitcher is undoubtedly due for more wins, while the other is for a few more losses. Here’s to that course correction starting tonight.
Given my outlook on this game, there are ample opportunities in the prop market for Cardinals hitters with power, and a few are also on the Phillies.
I’m using Paul Goldschmidt to go Over 2.5 bases in my same-game parlay. Goldschmidt has the most power in the St. Louis lineup and has a career .330 average against Walker, with a lot of data behind it. It’s a matchup he’s seen well for a while now, and nothing should change when Walker appears to be having his worst career season.
