Kelly Oubre Jr. averaged a career-high 20.3 points per game last season with the injury-ravaged Charlotte Hornets.
But when the game of musical chairs that is NBA free agency opened this past offseason, he was left standing when the music turned off.
Oubre eventually signed a one-year, minimum-salary contract with the Philadelphia 76ers in mid-September, perhaps sensing an opportunity for a legitimate rotation role amidst the uncertainty surrounding James Harden.
That turned out to be the right call, as he could be playing his way into a major payday next summer.
In his eight games before he was the victim of a hit-and-run in mid-November, Oubre averaged 16.3 points, 5.1 rebounds, 1.8 three-pointers and 1.4 steals in only 29.0 minutes per outing.
He started all five games after the Sixers shipped P.J. Tucker to the Los Angeles Clippers, and he was showing that he could thrive either in the starting lineup or off the bench.
Even before his absence, there was reason to expect regression moving forward.
Oubre was shooting 50.0% overall and 37.8% from three-point range, both of which smashed his previous career-highs of 45.2% and 35.2%, respectively.
He’s likely getting more open looks alongside Tyrese Maxey and Joel Embiid than he did in Charlotte, but he also spent a season with the Golden State Warriors and didn’t shoot that well.
Oubre has been a bit more inconsistent since coming back in early December.
Across 14 games (including seven starts), he’s averaging 11.4 points, 3.5 rebounds, 1.8 threes and 1.2 steals while shooting 45.8% overall and 37.9% from deep.
However, the team has gone 11-3 over those 14 games, four of which came without Embiid. Oubre has been a key to some of those wins.
Even if Oubre’s numbers continue to plateau, there’s value in proving that he can contribute to a winning team. His ability to hold his own defensively against Boston Celtics star forward Jayson Tatum earlier this season was perhaps more impressive than anything he’s done offensively as a Sixer.
“He’s been really good,” head coach Nick Nurse told reporters earlier this season. “I think Kelly [Oubre Jr.], you know he’s certainly, he scored 20 points a game last year, I know people say, ‘Ah, you know, it’s empty.’ So, the capability to drive and shoot is there. Again, I think his athleticism, and he’s got a high compete level, he’s competing at both ends.”
That should be great news for Oubre’s future earning prospects. It’s not-so-great news for the Sixers, though.
Since Oubre signed a one-year deal with them, they only have non-Bird rights on him in free agency.
That means that unless they re-sign him using salary-cap space or a cap exception, they can only offer him 120% of what he’s earning now as the starting salary of his new deal.
He might have offers for the full $13.0 million non-taxpayer mid-level exception (if not more) elsewhere if he keeps this up.
If the Sixers plan to go the cap-space route this summer, they’ll either have to carve out some of that space to re-sign Oubre or hope he’s willing to settle for the $8.1 room mid-level exception.
But if they’re an over-the-cap team, they’ll either have to use their non-taxpayer or taxpayer MLE to re-sign him or hope he’s willing to re-sign via Bird rights.
