Would you look at that? The Toronto Blue Jays have now won three series in a row and they’ll go for a sweep of the first-place New York Yankees in a matinee matchup April 17 at Rogers Centre.
The Jays haven taken the first two games thanks to some impressive starting pitching and are hoping Kevin Gausman can continue that trend. But the Toronto ace has not looked like himself, and that will play into my MLB picks.
Find out how in my Yankees vs. Blue Jays predictions below.
The Toronto Blue Jays have been able to take the first two games of this important series against the New York Yankees thanks to some terrific starting pitching performances from Chris Bassitt and Yusei Kikuchi.
If I told you last season Kevin Gausman was taking the ball for the series finale you might like the Jays’ chances to pull off the sweep. However, the Toronto ace missed a big chunk of Spring Training due to shoulder fatigue and just hasn’t looked right since.
Gausman has surrendered 12 earned runs on 16 hits over his first three starts which total just 9 1/3 innings, the longest of which was just 4 1/3. Gausman is sporting a grotesque 10.13 expected ERA, a .334 opponent expected batting average, and a .643 opponent expected slugging percentage.
The Yankees haven’t brought their hitting shoes to Toronto, but this is still a very potent lineup, many of which who have big numbers against Gausman. N.Y. counters with Marcus Stroman. The former Blue Jay will be comfortable at Rogers Centre and has been a solid rotation piece for the Yanks so far.
Stroman, who limits hard but not all contact, has pitched to a 3.68 xERA which includes him shutting out the Jays on three hits over six innings back on April 5. However, he followed that up by allowing four runs on four hits over five innings to the Miami Marlins of all teams.
Stroman is also still giving up a .235 xBA to opponents which is just above league average (56th percentile). So, if the Jays — who have been doing a better job at the plate the last few series — can be patient and not try to crush everything Stroman throws, they should be able to tag him for a couple of runs.
Mix in some questionable bullpen work from both teams so far this season and this has me looking at the Over 8.5 in this matchup.
