The Miami Heat (0-1) face the Boston Celtics (1-0) Wednesday for Game 2 of their best-of-7, 1st-round series. Tip-off from TD Garden is scheduled for 7 p.m. ET (TNT). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Heat vs. Celtics odds and make our expert NBA picks and predictions.
Regular-season series: Celtics won 3-0
Boston took Sunday’s opener 114-94 behind F Jayson Tatum’s 1st career playoff triple-double (23 points, 10 rebounds, 10 assists). Tatum only made 1-of-8 3-pointers, but the team finished 22-for-49 (44.9%) behind the arc. G Derrick White added 20 points, while 6 Celtics finished in double-figures for points.
They led by 5 points after the opening quarter, 15 points at the half and 32 points entering the 4th. They easily covered as 14.5-point home favorites.
Miami, on the other hand, allowed 10 offensive rebounds but on the bright side, it outscored Boston in the paint 44-24, which is antiquated in today’s NBA. C Bam Adebayo led the Heat with a team-high 24 points.
The Under (210.5) did hit, barely. Although it appears that teams are either adjusting to the playoff atmosphere or ramping up their defense, either way teams are struggling to score so far.
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:42 a.m. ET.
Home teams dominated the playoffs out of the gate, going 11-0 straight up through Monday, but 2 visiting teams (Indiana at Milwaukee and Dallas at LA Clippers) picked off wins Tuesday.
However, the Celtics don’t seem at risk of losing this game at home. They are an NBA best 38-4 as home favorites this season. But given the current odds (-1400), there is no value at picking them straight up.
In the 1st-round openers, 6 of the 8 matchups ended in double-digit wins. So far, Game 2’s have been closer as teams are adjusting and finding advantages.
I expect the same for this game. As a road underdog during the regular season, Miami had the 2nd-best cover percentage (63.0%).
Entering Wednesday, NBA Playoffs underdogs are 4-2 ATS in Game 2’s.
Miami and the Denver Nuggets tied for the NBA’s best Under record during the regular season at 47-35, according to Teamrankings.com. The Heat only scored 94 points in their Game 1 loss — they feature a league-best 28-15 Under record as a road team.
Boston’s defense allowed just 109.2 points per game in the regular season and as teams up their effort for the playoffs, I expect another low-scoring game.
Plus, only 2 of the 6 Game 2’s had both teams score over 100 point so far.
