Season Preview: Expectations and Odds for 2024

The Detroit Tigers’ season preview by Adam Burke from the VSiN 2024 MLB Betting Guide.

The Detroit Tigers of 2024 are getting near, but the rebuilding process in the Motor City is still ongoing. For this fan base and this city, the rebuilding process has been arduous and excruciating. The Tigers have been undoing the excessive spending of Dave Dombrowski and Mike Ilitch during a time when it did appear that winning a World Series was attainable, and they haven’t had a winning season since 2016.

Since 1987, this legendary team has made five trips to the playoffs, four of which have occurred in a row from 2011 to 2014. Under Jim Leyland, the Tigers made two trips to the World Series, but once they were in the Fall Classic, they never posed much of a threat.

The Tigers’ 78 victories in the previous season were their highest since their final winning campaign in 2016, and their second-place finish was also their highest since then.

Undoubtedly, things are getting better. With Miguel Cabrera retired, Javier Baez is the last remaining terrible contact. The team’s guaranteed salary for the upcoming season is only approximately $40 million, meaning that financial flexibility has returned just as some local talent is starting to show. The Tigers should offer Motown sports fans something to cheer about. I’m not sure whether this is a playoff team on the surface, but this is a team that should be in the mix for the first time in a long time.

The expectation that four players under the age of 25 will start on Opening Day is a little startling. It was not an easy procedure to cut loose the cheap placeholders who were hanging around to conserve money and sign fat veteran contracts, but the Tigers’ future is now. It appears that Colt Keith will make his Major League Baseball debut on March 28th, joining Parker Meadows, Riley Greene, and Spencer Torkelson in the lineup.

Growing pains are to be expected for an offense that finished in the bottom five in several important categories the previous season, but it is far less unpleasant to see a big Tigers draft pick struggle than

First up, let’s look at Torkelson, who had a 107 wRC+ and hit 31 home runs. Best hitter in college, the Arizona State product was selected with the first pick overall in 2020. He made his debut in 2022 after the Tigers had him in Triple-A by 2021, but MLB pitching proved to be too strong for him. He was still not very good in many areas last season, but he did have a 14.1% Barrel% and a 50.5% Hard Hit%. He was making adjustments on the fly since he also hit 19 home runs in the second half.

Torkelson does strike out a lot and hits in a lot of deep counts, so I’m not sure whether his eye-popping hitting average and on-base percentage from college and the low minors will translate, but the contact authority is aexcellent omen for the future. Greene, who struggled with injuries last season, posted an 11.3% barrel percentage and a 46.6% hard hit percentage. Due to his horrible launch angle, he only managed 11 home runs, but he still had a very strong hit rate, far over the league average of 39.2% for HH% and 8.1% for barrel percentage.

Across two levels, Meadows blasted 22 home runs and stole 27 bases. He profiles as a pretty solid defensive center fielder, a talent that should not be disregarded when playing at Comerica Park. He will strike out since he walks a lot, but he will have a chance at the top of the order and give the team a much-needed burst of athleticism. Aside from the dead-end contracts, the Tigers’ lack of athleticism is my biggest criticism of the team. Because Meadows and Greene are athletes, they can go and get it in the OF, which is really beneficial to the pitching staff.

Despite his lack of athleticism, Keith blasted 27 home runs in 126 minor league games last season.season. All things considered, he may wind up being a big-bodied DH and will need to find a spot in the MLB, but this profile does have some power and extra contact authority. The Tigers signed the bat to a six-year, $28.6 million contract with options that could be worth over $80 million because they are so confident in him.