Collingwood will have to defy a decade of AFL history if they are to win the 2023 premiership as damning statistics leave AFL greats concerned.
The Magpies have now dropped their third game in four matches as serious questions have been raised over their flag credentials.
In the past six weeks, Collingwood are ranked second last for inside 50s and ground balls, third last in the competition for points against from clearances and ranked in the bottom four for points against and opposition scores per inside 50 in alarming new figures.
“We talk about hitting this time of year having settled everything – the bottom line is they are far from settled,” On the Couch host Garry Lyon said.
“We know the injuries are there and it’s not just run of the mill players.
“Their defence has just been opened up in a big, big way.
“These are not numbers from a team at the top of the ladder and can’t be moved now.”
History shows no premier in 10 years has lost two of their last four home and away games – like Collingwood now has.
And alarmingly for Pies fans, 16 of the past 18 premiership winners have ranked top six from scores from their front half – a category Collingwood are ranked 12th in the AFL in the last six weeks.
“This is a big switch that needs flicking … and a flicked switch hasn’t happened too often in recent times,” Lyon lamented.
“They were so good early in the piece … but those questions are real.
“They are going to have to defy history to get to where they want to go.”
Fellow Couch panellist Jonathan Brown agreed the statistics were damning to Collingwood’s premiership hopes.
“You can’t win a premiership with those numbers historically,” he said.
“I don’t think any team’s won a premiership like that.
“They’ve tipped over.
“Their three best players weren’t playing on the weekend (in skipper Darcy Moore, Nick Daicos and Jordan de Goey) … but it’s more than that.
“You can’t turn it on and off like a tap.”
Even coach Craig McRae admitted his side was conceding too many points in their pursuit of flag glory.
While admitting the Pies haven’t looked “as sharp” in recent weeks, Nathan Buckley believes there is still a positive to be taken from their form slump.
“I haven’t seen that back six that shaky; a Collingwood team that shaky for a while – definitely not this year,” he said.
“Every side has had their personnel issues – if your glass half full on Collingwood, it’s better to have it in the last month than in the next month.”
Collingwood appears most likely to face Melbourne in its qualifying final, and a loss there would likely set up a semi-final against Carlton.
The Magpies lost to both of those teams in their most recent meetings.