The Tampa Bay Buccaneers signed quarterback Baker Mayfield to a one-year deal worth $4 million. The sporting public laughed. The division-rival New Orleans Saints signed Derek Carr for $37.5 million per year, about 9.4 times as much. The sporting public applauded.
The joke was on anyone who fell for the Vegas preseason win totals that flowed from those two decisions: 6.5 wins for Tampa Bay, 9.5 for New Orleans.
The Buccaneers are collecting on a bigger bet, wagering not only that Mayfield would provide greater value than Carr, but that he would outperform the 2022 version of Tom Brady as well. Mayfield has delivered on both fronts for the NFC South-leading Buccaneers, heading my list of the 12 biggest surprises in this 2023 NFL season.
The Pick Six column begins there and covers:
Baker Mayfield represents a statistical upgrade from Tom Brady as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ quarterback.
The case for Mayfield as a viable short-term replacement for Brady required an argument the Buccaneers were never going to make publicly.
The argument suggested Brady had declined to such a degree during the 2022 season that he was basically a high-processing Tier 3 quarterback.
Under that line of thinking, the drop from Brady to Mayfield might be negligible in a best-case scenario, if Mayfield could regain his career footing.
The Brady component is interesting. While Brady’s retirement during the offseason kept him from appearing in 2023 Quarterback Tiers, I did collect votes for Brady from 50 coaches and executives, in case he continued playing.